Beanieville: Everyone and their mother now shorting SOHU!
TV107
· 1 year ago
I'M CALLING IT FIRST HERE
BEN IS HIKING THE RATE BY 1/8 POINT TOMORROW
zstock
· 1 year ago
markets are currently pricing in a 10% chance of a rate hike on Wednesday, a 35% chance of a rate hike on August 5, and an 87% chance of rate hike in September.
zstock
· 1 year ago
If they raise by 1/8%, tomorrow--do you think they will have to halt trading or will the market go up?
i said this to myself this weekend but i'm glad someone posted this
zstock
· 1 year ago
Krai-mama is historical--that's why I never pay attention to that kind---I need predictors, and then I need predictors that never say anything dumb, " example--there was one guy here saying short USO. That pretty much cancels out any good predictions he might have."
Rax
· 1 year ago
Z
What about SKF - a double top in the making?
In before close on NYX 60JUL Calls - stock has clearly found a bottom.
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
market's already rolled over dude, it's only a matter of time before it goes down to the next level. good luck.
yoyo
· 1 year ago
vodka we are on the same page....lets see who finds the bottom by next week..lol
Rax mark this post..lets see who wins
zstock
· 1 year ago
Mess with the best---Die like the rest--- zstock
null
· 1 year ago
AFAIK July 60 calls is a losing proposition. What is the idea behind long calls with less time to expiry, in a down market, in a down stock? Even if you do make money on this trade I do not see the point of the trade.....Are you looking for a bounce and make money?
zstock
· 1 year ago
after today , the economic calendar, just gets better and better. Those of you who read my blog this week-end , you would have been totally prepared for today's action
arun21
· 1 year ago
better and better as in more positive for the markets or better and better trading environment? big difference.
zstock
· 1 year ago
I'm waiting for QQQQ to get down in the 46's..before declaring the market bottom, short term.. Before that happens, sectors are trading rotational, it looks like.... FRI --looks predictable, cause personal spending estimate is up 0.7%, which is huge, in this kind of market, imo..
Docqb
· 1 year ago
check out COW and DBA...
Docqb
· 1 year ago
pre-market extremely important tommorrow....
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
why ?
TV107
· 1 year ago
6 days until end of quarter
aint no way market going down
yao ming
· 1 year ago
y? hedge fund redemptions could send this market into a tail spin. just putting it out there. i think we get a rally but anythig is possible
Docqb
· 1 year ago
Wow, Citi gonna cut a bunch of jobs....
beanieville
· 1 year ago
If you look at some of the polls out there regarding sentiment, we are darn right negative right now.... with about 50% in the bearish camp.
Ok, this weekend i've looked at lots of charts, i've made plans how i'm gonna bail if we don't get the rally this week that i kinda expect, i read lots of the news out there, i read what some of the supposed gurus out there think, i've decided on stocks i'm gonna short.... now the only thing for me to do is to wake up early and pay attention to the tape with a laser focus tomorrow.
I wish everyone the best (and god forbid you're margined to the max) , and i'll see ya tomorrow.
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
".. now the only thing for me to do is to wake up early and pay attention to the tape with a laser focus tomorrow."
LOL @ laser_focus
troyhouse
· 1 year ago
bull or bear market, beanie is not affected, as who needs to trade when one can make off the ads and referral dollars
marketclub ino and now tradingtriangle
beanieville
· 1 year ago
marketclub=tradingtriangle. :)
yao ming
· 1 year ago
jealous?
troyhouse
· 1 year ago
not really.... just worried about the new bagholders....
beanieville
· 1 year ago
Never "invest" in small companies and those that are not profitable.
Case in point: Lots of investors were really pumped up by MVIS's pico projector for a few years now, thinking that MVIS will become big one day. Well, now things are getting a whole lot tougher for MVIS when Texas Instrument decided to beat them up. http://seekingalpha.com/article/82223-microvisi...
MVIS has no money or influence. TXN will probably eat their breakfast, lunch and dinner.
zstock
· 1 year ago
finally, someone else gets it !!!!---- I been saying that from day one when I first started MY blog, back in 2006-
beanieville
· 1 year ago
Barron's just hammered AAPL . Good timing too. AAPL's chart shows the stock is rolling over.
yao ming
· 1 year ago
not making a call on aapl. im a blackberry man myself. i also think bold 9000 wil crush/destroy/ blow out the water the new iphone BUT BARRONS SUX. douche bag rag imo
wow i remember the day eln fell to nearly 3 bucks now 33-34 unreal
beanieville
· 1 year ago
yeah, it was only 3 years ago. Good to grab a thousand shares on these once good stocks that fell from grace.
That's why i grabbed about a 1000 shares of ETFC relatively recently, and see what it does in a few years.
Did the same with BBI as well.
TV107
· 1 year ago
i can see etfc recovering but bbi is a dying business
beanieville
· 1 year ago
maybe they can acquire some online video companies.
BBI is still good for those who only rents occasionally, like me.
zstock
· 1 year ago
MON reports earnings before the bell, RIMM, ORCL, NKE after the bell
TV107
· 1 year ago
most interested in MON rather than RIMM MON of all ags is most overpriced, but most important cause of its weighting in the XLB
TV107
· 1 year ago
xlf finally will get to 200million shares and it will a positive day if today aint a tradable bottom, i dont know what is
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
i track Merrill MER and at 34 it was pretty cheap. for trading i am going to buy around 34 and sell at 35-36.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
No matter what happens this next 3 months, for better or for worst, the solar bull market is for real and will continue for at least 4-5 years.
Don't see the supposed meltdown as the end of the world. It's just the beginning of the mega bull market in alternative energy (and fertilizers? and technology and even financials to a lesser extent). If you have cash on the side, you would wish the market crashes. I do.
Stay out of margin until the coast is clear.
I think the fed can still change the entire mood of the market tomorrow but it will require surprising everybody with great news.
Either way, i'll be prepared. Are you?
Have a great day and i'll see ya later...
zstock
· 1 year ago
DGX speculation play the DGX buy JULY 50 call is 0.25 sell 0.45
zstock
· 1 year ago
BUYING OSK,NDAQ,REP
zstock
· 1 year ago
BUYING EWH,EMN,IYT
zstock
· 1 year ago
GDP at 1% on Wednesday---market should go up and stay up--
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
GDP is on thurs. i think
zstock
· 1 year ago
you're right--I'm off by one day --thanks--well that's good, that adds another potential up day
zstock
· 1 year ago
BUYING IWM
arun21
· 1 year ago
AAPL looking weak.
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
hoping it cracks 170 :)
zstock
· 1 year ago
PH, buying PH 70 calls (july) --huge vertical 50 day and 74 = 200 day support--Two buy signals at the same time---sell at 50 day or 76.5
SlopeofHope has lots of people who like to make conversation, and i'm usually there to disrupt. lol
beanieville
· 1 year ago
the indicis are like 2 days oversold now and is starting to rebound a bit.
Wednesday is a very important day , due to fed (midday) and RIMM and MON annoucements (after the bell)
beanieville
· 1 year ago
other than short term trades, i'm not recommending any swing or long term plays until we get to see what happens on thursday.
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
booyah beaniee....make this a new post !!!
beanieville
· 1 year ago
Just as a differing opinion to everybody out there, i've consulted with my world class astrologer yesterday and the hummus-loving guy indicated that there will not be a market meltdown or a crash in the USA.
I can't say i agree with him at this point, so i'm hedged.
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
is he an indian astrologer....they have 1900 numbers you can call :)
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
the bottom held...all load up :)
TV107
· 1 year ago
thank the lord major short term reversal day in beaten up sectors will continue hard until fed minutes tomorrow i'm dumping everything if we get 133.8-134 on spy tomorrow as long which could happen on those crazy spikes after fed minutes but we must close above 132
TV107
· 1 year ago
well i did get some shares sold at highs of day god damn ag and commodiy stocks dragging down the financials today
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
did you get rid of DRYS ;-)
TV107
· 1 year ago
yea i got rid of the shippers on 6/17 sold drys out around 82ish took a small loss on my positions and options would have broken even if i waited til 83.50 later that day its prob safe to get back into them ...they will run hard into earnings but we are many weeks away but right now all my buying power is elsewhere best option
buy 100 shrs drys stock and 1 drys sep 75 call sell 2 drys sep 95 calls against ur positions
(multiple this by whatever u can)
Winace
· 1 year ago
GO LONG QQQQ!
Winace
· 1 year ago
Want to hedge? Long the NASDAQ and S&P, Short the Russel and DOW ;-), Don't say Winace never gave ya anything!
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
who the hell are you?
Winace
· 1 year ago
LMFAO!!! Ask Beanie to educate ya! Or Z, or F8 ;-), or anyone for that matter ;-)
zstock
· 1 year ago
HEY WINACE !!! alright--tell me what to buy next !!! I got a little surplus profit on the table today
Winace
· 1 year ago
Well, I hope you exited at the points I mentioned ;-), let me take a look at the ETFs/Indices and see what I see.....
Winace
· 1 year ago
At the moment, I can offer you a small arbitrage play, The DIA and SPY are short time overbought, the QQQQ and IWM are flat. Hence place an arbitrage pair trade and capture the difference. Short DIA/SPY, long IWM/QQQQ. As the gap narrows you should gain some small profits. Do not hold too long though.
Winace
· 1 year ago
Exit that trade now, should have got you something, but DIA and SPY compensated ;-)
null
· 1 year ago
Why is there an arbitrage opportunity between DIA and qqqq> or SPY and qqqq?
null
· 1 year ago
Do u mean arbitrage in the futures/cash?
Winace
· 1 year ago
There is not anymore, and in the securities themselves, which can be taken advantage of with options.
null
· 1 year ago
Yeah but I want to know why SPY and QQQQ which are unrealed (?) have an arbitrage......
Winace
· 1 year ago
Indices like to move as a whole (the market in general), one will not get oversold and one overbought for too lengthy of a time. This creates divergences between the indices which can be exploited.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
Winace is a pretty good chartist who trades mostly stock options (which you know i don't recommend.)
Lately, i'm not sure why he goes around telling everyone he makes the calls before me, even though i don't subscribe to his newsletter. ?
Winace
· 1 year ago
ENER, I called 1 day before you (long), it is posted. ;-), Someone's got to bust your balls Bean! And I FULLY recommend STOCKS over options, if you have the cash! Options are the middlemans hope of obtaining the security of large stock movers.
arun21
· 1 year ago
where is everyone today.. ENER still holding up well. Bought at the opening SOHU july puts. Up a tad so far.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
We are gonna test the lows, and something tells me we're gonna break down if not today, it'll be this week.
So watch the tape very carefully.
fortune8
· 1 year ago
Didn't I warn you already?
I am looking for that tripple bottom, if there is one.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
do yourselves a favor, don't BUY anything today, even if we seem to bounce off from the lows.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
bye bye SOHU... so long... see ya at 55
beanieville
· 1 year ago
ENER is a daytrading short here near 79
beanieville
· 1 year ago
stoploss around 79.73 for me
Winace
· 1 year ago
Jesus Bean, Why don't you just sign my name after the statement ;-)
beanieville
· 1 year ago
???
That number is merely the first 30 minutes low.
Winace
· 1 year ago
Just playing with ya Bean, I seen a pullback coming in for ENER, um remember? ;-)
beanieville
· 1 year ago
c'mon man, pullback 78.28 you indicated but it went up to 83, which should already scared the hell out of all the shorts.
Winace
· 1 year ago
I am not saying my recommendations make people smart! Yea, the scared have left the building, I tell 'em what's coming, I ain't tellin ya how to trade it ;-).
beanieville
· 1 year ago
i am pretty hedged, so i'm feelin selfish now and wants everything to fall apart, so the hedging "profits" can be used to buy more stocks later.
tell me that everyone here owns a piece of ENER for the longer term, so i don't go on shoving the stock at you everyday.
zstock
· 1 year ago
beannie, you remember when people were going to short ENER at $50, that day it gapped up on earnings, and I tried to to warn them, The market might give ENER ---FSLR type P/E?
beanieville
· 1 year ago
i hope so....
so many people are gonna be rich.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
The nasdaq is rolling over , as expected.
What really worries me is the RBS call for market meltdown. The timing was perfect. And you know that oftentimes PERCEPTION IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN REALITY.
johnny appleseed
· 1 year ago
yeah, but beanie, rbs called for a meltdown later this summer after a rise through July...so this wouldn't be the meltdown they refer
zstock
· 1 year ago
Until Congress does something about USO--don't short USO---that's all I have to say, about that !!!!! Hurricane season is here NOW !!!!! 14 are predicted to come...JULY 4th is coming---It's just an uphill battle for USO bears, IMO
zstock
· 1 year ago
If anybody follows new home sales on the economic calendar, then you already know that number has a dramatic effect on housing stocks. Well the number for tomorrow looks HOT!!!!!! to me. Then FOMC makes it's announcement at 11:15--so either housing stocks keep going up after FOMC, or they start tanking---like last time--they went really high, and then FOMC 11:15 killed them
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
neither matters, housing sucks and the FED notes are not that imp. right now.
zstock
· 1 year ago
SRS at my short sell signal , 200 day, 99.2 MGM buy the JULY 35 call = VNO vertical 50 day, it's going up tomorrow + GOOG had the same vertical 50 day, FRI, and it's up $5 today
tenyeartrader
· 1 year ago
VNO horizontal 50 day
zstock
· 1 year ago
i just call that particular 50 day, vertical, cause on a two month chart, the 50 day looks like it's going straight up...On the 4 month chart, 50 day looks horizontal, big difference in perception. The 2 month vertical 50 day is the best buy signal in the market. back tested 3 years with no failures, and they are rare
beanieville
· 1 year ago
say noo to SOHU... don't buy. I think the upgrades are a trick and the big boys gonna bury ya.
Disclosure: i'm short at 76
beanieville
· 1 year ago
with that said, the stock could go as high as 78 on this countertrend rally.
T
· 1 year ago
I'm with you on that. SOHU made the "Selling on Strength" list today.
covered SOHU for a buck and a bit. Wasn't at my computer to fully take advantage.
zstock
· 1 year ago
NYX --buying the NYX july 50 calls
yoyo
· 1 year ago
falling knife...all the best..beanie pumped this when it was at 80 ..lol
yoyo
· 1 year ago
double bottom..if it breaches $55 then your money is up in the air.
zstock
· 1 year ago
DID you buy my ICE recommendation at $116---that was a falling knife---- I like to catch falling knives
dealsaddict
· 1 year ago
omg haha crazy zeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!! $116 ?? you caught that?? Good eye!! lol now im stuck at 129$ sigh
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
nice one Z....i saw your recommendation, but the market was so dismal, that i chickened.
zstock
· 1 year ago
ATI ( metals industry)low is pretty well established---at 61 –62 AA---bounced off it’s 200 day, which helps to support my ATI-at the bottom---ATI---bottom fishing dream list---KALU and RTI—are the companions of ATI, sort of
zstock
· 1 year ago
SHLD 70 call at 5.10—even if entry is 2 days early, easy to get to $80—bb13,2 middle band---sell for 10.00
vodka_tonic
· 1 year ago
markets going down long term buddy :)
zstock
· 1 year ago
yeah, still in a bear trend, but in an up week,. I think.
yoyo
· 1 year ago
consumer stocks are getting killled..no easy way out
zstock
· 1 year ago
that's because consumer confidence reading was 57--which is just horrible---but these retail stores are raking in the money right now, with those gov't checks. So retail is a tough sector to short sell
zstock
· 1 year ago
BG down $13..that's going on the buy watch list
beanieville
· 1 year ago
Everytime we're at the lows and points of strong uncertainty, i go consult my hummus-eating astrologer for another point of view.
He says we're gonna be ok. Buy American stocks. I says to him he better not be wrong when everybody is calling for a crash, or i'm gonna fire his arse quicker than the Roadrunner.
I says i'd rather prefer a crash....He says whatever.
lol
zstock
· 1 year ago
fortune 8--your USO put recommendation from last friday, made everyone lose 40%, or maybe you are using 3 month time frame?
Steve
· 1 year ago
40%...ouch.
Lot's of people lost their asses last week betting against crude.
What do you mean the only validation he used was a picture of a parking lot?
zstock
· 1 year ago
If you want to be a millionaire, " Put up a parking Lot"
lilme
· 1 year ago
Someone (Victor Speraedeo >?) said this weekend NOT to short oil because there were too many factors that could shoot it through the ceiling....sounds right to me - to manage risk.
fortune8
· 1 year ago
Don't know what you have against me, but you are wrong !!!
this is how billy cara thinks how this whole thing will play out:
we slice through 11750 towards 11000 very quickly, we bounce for a few weeks/months and then we slice thru 11000 to 10,000 in sept/oct.
That is a possibility. If we breakdown soon, the drop will be vertical. Vertical drops always result in a capitulation and big bounce.
I think at worst in the short term, that will probably be how it would play out.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
i don't know about the rest you folks, but i'll be up very early tomorrow to watch the sun come up and watch the premarket tape.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
The trade triangle isn't always accurate. In fact, you can lose money using the triangles but if you apply it consistently, you should make out in the long run. The daily charts work the best.
Note: i personally do not use the trade triangles to trade, but i'd eventually look at it for double checking my analysis.
troyhouse
· 1 year ago
show of hands, so how many actually signed for any trials from here?
I did not for sure, I hate pumping, ads.... no one can get me to sign, unless I am convinced...!!
beanieville
· 1 year ago
don't worry...no need to join the trial. I can help ya make money.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
only those who aren't making money even with my help , have signed up. No threats here. No explanation need either. Everyone makes their own decisions.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
MarketClub Trial Extended 1 Day
Due to the high volume of requests, MarketClub will be EXTENDING the trial offer until June 24th 11:59pm eastern standard time.
I've been authorized to extend the offer to everybody.
ok, all 3 major indicis are now showing a negative trend in the point&figures.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
die SOHU die!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TV107
· 1 year ago
oil is dropping 7 bucks tomorrow
zstock
· 1 year ago
that's funny. I really hope it drops pretty soon---I want to buy USO on the dip
TV107
· 1 year ago
and spx rallying 30 pts tomorrow
zstock
· 1 year ago
VMW-it's impossible for VMW to go below $60 next few days
good ole boy
· 1 year ago
Buying CIT and Bidz both are oversold here. Expect a bounce when BIDZ get s on Russell 3000 index.
T
· 1 year ago
Possible pivotal day tomorrow. What's everyone's strategy for the D day?
zstock
· 1 year ago
( back when the market thought economy was in recession, the DOW down to 11,600) GDP on Thursday is 1%, So, that will remind the market that DOW is not in recession, so I think the Market rebounds, no matter what FOMC or any news pre-market says--
T
· 1 year ago
Agree. DOW is likely hit the bottom sometime this week, maybe tomorrow...
beanieville
· 1 year ago
The indicis are mostly showing spinning tops. We should go higher tomorrow; else, LOOK OUT MASSIVELY BELOW.
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
keeping the SOHU short?
beanieville
· 1 year ago
i think it goes lower now that it is once again trading below the neckline of the head and shoulders.
people who are happy with their profits will take it, but i think swingtraders can make some more on the SOHU short.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
could easily get to 60 if the market sells off after fed/rimm/mon
beanieville
· 1 year ago
the neckline is somewhere between 74-75
beanieville
· 1 year ago
i covered my ENER short for a little bit over $1 profit
beanieville
· 1 year ago
i have a feeling, though, keeping the stoploss at breakeven is better and just let the stock work. It could go alot lower by the close.
This kind of stuff is somewhat subjective. In the long run, i think letting your stock work instead of taking quick profits all the time is the better way to trade.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
Winace is correct about ENER potential pullback to the low 60, which is about right if the market or the solars really falls apart.
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
ok mr greenjeans winace, why don't you tell us which options to buy:
tenyeartrader
· 1 year ago
APWR has pulled back to let some more buyers in. Remember ENER? Don't miss this one.
Mike
· 1 year ago
Beanieville,
Can you believe couple kids are running Disqus? lol
beanieville
· 1 year ago
c'mon Mike, is this really necessary? They may be kids but they do have your employer email address everytime you post. I wouldn't recommend you piss them off. I suggest if you think they have security issues, you email them and let them know.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
not only that, even though i deleted all your messages, the boys at disqus still owns a copy of all your messages.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
die SOHU die!!!!!!!!
T
· 1 year ago
Nasdaq just broke down 2375 support. Heading to 2157...
zstock
· 1 year ago
IS XOM at 104 YET ? Well then commodities are WAY WAY WAY under-valued, imo--
lilme
· 1 year ago
Lehman (I think ) upgraded fSLR today target $335,
beanieville
· 1 year ago
I guess Tobin "TooMuchWine" Smith was really drunk those 2 days he got his people out of ENER (at 55-60 and at 77). lol
yoyo
· 1 year ago
I think ENER is going to comedown hard..its not sustainable this run...
we are again in bear market..see the sideways trading..
beanieville
· 1 year ago
ENER going GOOG trajectory?
beanieville
· 1 year ago
ENER the strongest stock in the entire stock universe? Can it be?
beanieville
· 1 year ago
SOHU:
even though i shorted at 76 for a swingtrade, i'm still setting a stoploss at above today's hod. Swingtrade or not, i still follow the rules of exit.
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
do you hold overnight or sell at close?
beanieville
· 1 year ago
as long as the stoploss doesn't get hit, i will hold overnite. If stoploss gets hit, i will be looking to reshort probably tomorrow, or today if the stock comes back BELOW the stoploss point.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
i can be adamant about a particular stock call, but when it comes to execution, i plan my trades and get out if wrong.
lilme
· 1 year ago
Beanie - when you say HOD do you mean the high of the first 30 minute period? Thx
beanieville
· 1 year ago
in this case, i am referring to the hod up to right now.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
i should have waited for the stock to come down below the first 30 minutes hod before shorting..... but i liked it at 76
beanieville
· 1 year ago
the float for ENER is relatively low, even lower than FSLR's. This (ENER) could easily become a super rocket.
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
it could just as easily go the other way
beanieville
· 1 year ago
shorting SOHU here near 76.
swing trade
beanieville
· 1 year ago
Say Noo for SOHU.
Don't buy.
arun21
· 1 year ago
wow. ENER blasting off again.
arun21
· 1 year ago
Shorted RT this morning at the open.
arun21
· 1 year ago
shorting SOHU here. playing small. 76.63
beanieville
· 1 year ago
solars definitely will be leaders year end rally
beanieville
· 1 year ago
i am parking FSLR to cash
beanieville
· 1 year ago
i guess this morning could be a good time to lighten up some long term positions.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
i think SOHU goes down but it is very oversold and combine that with 2 upgrades today, you probably want to wait to see what happens later.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
Two tier-1 firms are out defending Sohu.com (NASDAQ:SOHU) this morning:
- Citigroup notes Friday's sell-off was sparked by a Reuters article confirming what almost everyone already knew: Sohu will face challenging YoY comps on its brand adv side due to a post-Olympics "hangover" effect. However, the firm believes online gaming will continue to power rev and earnings growth in 2009. They were modeling +18% YoY for 2009 adv revs, so the company's expectations of "+20-30% YoY" is actually stronger than their estimates. Finally, they note that online gaming is highly immune from growing inflationary pressures in China, another positive. Accordingly, the firm raises their 2009E estimate, increases tgt to $90 (from $80), and reiterates Buy rating.
2Q tracking ahead of plan; 3Q looks excellent - Citi believes both Adv & Gaming are having a strong quarter, and should come in above company guidance. 3Q is also set to be very strong, especially with Olympics adv, which should benefit from Sohu recently being granted the rights to show live streaming video of all events. Sohu is easily one of the, if not the, fundamentally best positioned names for at least the next 2 quarters.
- Merrill Lynch reits Buy & $95 tgt on SOHU after a massive sell-off on Friday triggered by a report by Reuters on growth of Sohu’s online ad, 40% of revenues in 1Q08, to slow down to 20-30% YoY in 09. Even given a significant US market correction on Friday, they see overreaction to the article. Firm also sees Sina as another victim.
MLCO believes the company has been communicating the same message (slowdown in ad growth in 09) for a few months. They also believe the range is inline, if notbetter, than most analysts’ estimates. For example, they are looking at 22% growth in online ad only and Bloomberg consensus shows a 23% growth in sales (including games and wireless services).
Firm believes the focus should be on Sohu’s potential margin expansion in 2009, despite lower topline growth. They expect Sohu to obtain a high-tech status and thus a 15% tax rate for 2009. They are also modeling material operating leverage as they expect the reduction in Olympic-related spending next year, est. to be US$15-20m, to be able to offset most of the increase in operating expenses to support organic growth. They therefore expect net margins to improve to 35% in 09.
Notablecalls: I was quite surprised to see SOHU down over 10 pts on Friday following the Reuters story. With two tier-1 firms out defending and one of them actually raising their ests for Q2, the stock is a very strong bounce candidate. There are clearly a lot of shorts in the name from Friday and I smell blood.
Buy it early & aggressively. I see it trading up several points today.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
Don't think that last friday's high volume on SOHU selloff was a mistake. Big boys don't make mistakes like that.
That's my take anyways.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
the neckline on SOHU is at about 74.7 area
tenyeartrader
· 1 year ago
Commodities are all you need to watch. When they roll, so does the rest. We actually want oil to move higher believe it or not.
yao ming
· 1 year ago
everyone so bearish. almost 2 bearish. lets see. when everyone and their mama is looking for something, the OPPOSITE happens. im not making any predictions but i would not b surprised to see some sort of rally. lets see. beanie, dont give up on commodities stox yet. if, IF, we get a rally it will b commodities stox that will lead the way. solar and wind as well
lilme
· 1 year ago
Citi raises SOHU trgt to $90 tonight.
fortune8
· 1 year ago
So you think you are a good trader?
I am putting out a challenge to see if you can beat my record. Not saying that I am good but rather I was lucky. I rather be lucky than good.
If you do beat it, then show me a screen shot and not the BS.
SOHU does have long term potential. It's kinda like YHOO, but with a much smaller market cap.
yao ming
· 1 year ago
ouch. thats not a the type of endorsment id want if i were sohu. YAHOO SUX. SOHU SUX. google is a monster but given market cap it gains will b limited. BIDU IS THE REAL DEAL IMO
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
wow that sohu short is looking excellent so far in the premarket
beanieville
· 1 year ago
they are upgrading it , not to buy but to short/sell.
Market is in trouble and Beanie's recommended stock is swimming against it. This sucks!
Lonely Lurker
· 1 year ago
What's going on with SOHU?? I'm getting my face kicked in on this short. Should I keep holding or cover?
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
No Comment.
We should all keep spreadsheets and watch to see how successful the trade recommendations are.... see how the track record pans out...
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
I''d look to short ENER pretty soon though.
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
where is Lisa?
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
Beware low float = easily manipulated.
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
Looks like ENER is starting to crack a little
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
so, beanie... did you cover? how many shares did you short?
beanieville
· 1 year ago
cover what?
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
your sohu short.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
it's a swingtrade for now, and also a hedge against some of the longs.
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
and how many shares did you short?
T
· 1 year ago
Waiting for SELL signal confirmation on SOHU.
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
don't hold your breath
beanieville
· 1 year ago
Did you know that there are investors who followed ENER for decades? They must've seen so much potential in the company.
It's too soon to just take profits and call it quits.
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
everyone and their mother is shorting their mother
yoyo
· 1 year ago
lol
beanieville
· 1 year ago
if you're not in ENER, why not buy 30% for now, instead of waiting for a sale that may never come?
Oh yeah, ya got your sale at 27...and then at 50......
iknowbetter
· 1 year ago
why is everyone reading this fools garbage? not only is he full of it when he says he shorted SOHU, but his logic is just awful..can't believe i bookmarked this blog earlier, what a load of crock...
tradeking08
· 1 year ago
This may sound crazy and counter-intuitive, but I have to say it the way I feel it. Stocks which are going up keeps going up ..(ENER, IPI, FSYS, GMXR, POT etc..) and the stocks going down keeps going down (NYX, UA, DKS, STP etc..) what's the deal here? Is it just the sectors..? Shouldn't market corrections take everything with it? Very hard to play the overbought/oversold conditions these dyas. I hope other traders here feel the same way..
beanieville
· 1 year ago
Eric Bollinga warns about being long on oil.
ven88
· 1 year ago
Beanie, which options for ENER are good, moneywise and profitwise.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
uh.. i just don't think it's a good idea to be buying call options at times like this, especially when we're about to test the bottom.
If you are short USO, then don't panic until it closes above $113.
tenyeartrader
· 1 year ago
BNI...what the? Buy BNI with a stop just under $100.
T
· 1 year ago
Market charts test March low for sure...
T
· 1 year ago
Analysts defense for SOHU yesterday turned out to be a trap. Friday drop should have caught them off-guard...
beanieville
· 1 year ago
it was.
it's a fake upgrade so they could short. imo
T
· 1 year ago
I think the drop on Friday caught them off-guard. And both firms couldn't afford any trade loss due to their financial crisis... How sad...
Mike
· 1 year ago
Beanieville,
Your blog has too many security holes. I can break it one by one. lol
Mike
· 1 year ago
Where are you, Beanieville? I am waiting for you to ban me again and say 'freedom of speech'. lol
lilme
· 1 year ago
Mike-y let lost. Thanks. You are taking up too much oxygen.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
I'm shorting ENER again for a daytrade, this time at 80.7, stoploss at about 81.31
beanieville
· 1 year ago
not my favorite trade...i re-set stoploss to breakeven. I will pull out the stoploss at anytime if i like the profits and i'll take em.
beanieville
· 1 year ago
earlier this morning, we made nearly a buck on the first short, at the very least you should have either taken profits or you set the stoploss at breakeven.
troutslanding
· 1 year ago
RIMM looking weak too, but earnings after close...
BEN IS HIKING THE RATE BY 1/8 POINT TOMORROW
cramer video
i said this to myself this weekend but i'm glad someone posted this
What about SKF - a double top in the making?
In before close on NYX 60JUL Calls - stock has clearly found a bottom.
Rax mark this post..lets see who wins
zstock
FRI --looks predictable, cause personal spending estimate is up 0.7%, which is huge, in this kind of market, imo..
aint no way market going down
But the $VIX isn't showing the fear. http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24vix
Ok, this weekend i've looked at lots of charts, i've made plans how i'm gonna bail if we don't get the rally this week that i kinda expect, i read lots of the news out there, i read what some of the supposed gurus out there think, i've decided on stocks i'm gonna short.... now the only thing for me to do is to wake up early and pay attention to the tape with a laser focus tomorrow.
I wish everyone the best (and god forbid you're margined to the max) , and i'll see ya tomorrow.
LOL @ laser_focus
marketclub
ino
and now
tradingtriangle
Case in point: Lots of investors were really pumped up by MVIS's pico projector for a few years now, thinking that MVIS will become big one day. Well, now things are getting a whole lot tougher for MVIS when Texas Instrument decided to beat them up.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/82223-microvisi...
MVIS has no money or influence. TXN will probably eat their breakfast, lunch and dinner.
I been saying that from day one when I first started MY blog, back in 2006-
http://www.247wallst.com/2008/06/evergreen-sol-...
now 33-34
unreal
That's why i grabbed about a 1000 shares of ETFC relatively recently, and see what it does in a few years.
Did the same with BBI as well.
BBI is still good for those who only rents occasionally, like me.
MON of all ags is most overpriced, but most important cause of its weighting in the XLB
if today aint a tradable bottom, i dont know what is
Don't see the supposed meltdown as the end of the world. It's just the beginning of the mega bull market in alternative energy (and fertilizers? and technology and even financials to a lesser extent). If you have cash on the side, you would wish the market crashes. I do.
Stay out of margin until the coast is clear.
I think the fed can still change the entire mood of the market tomorrow but it will require surprising everybody with great news.
Either way, i'll be prepared. Are you?
Have a great day and i'll see ya later...
SlopeofHope has lots of people who like to make conversation, and i'm usually there to disrupt. lol
Wednesday is a very important day , due to fed (midday) and RIMM and MON annoucements (after the bell)
I can't say i agree with him at this point, so i'm hedged.
major short term reversal day in beaten up sectors
will continue hard until fed minutes tomorrow
i'm dumping everything if we get 133.8-134 on spy tomorrow as long
which could happen on those crazy spikes after fed minutes
but we must close above 132
god damn ag and commodiy stocks dragging down the financials today
sold drys out around 82ish
took a small loss on my positions and options
would have broken even if i waited til 83.50 later that day
its prob safe to get back into them ...they will run hard into earnings but we are many weeks away
but right now all my buying power is elsewhere
best option
buy 100 shrs drys stock and 1 drys sep 75 call
sell 2 drys sep 95 calls against ur positions
(multiple this by whatever u can)
or SPY and qqqq?
Lately, i'm not sure why he goes around telling everyone he makes the calls before me, even though i don't subscribe to his newsletter. ?
So watch the tape very carefully.
I am looking for that tripple bottom, if there is one.
That number is merely the first 30 minutes low.
so many people are gonna be rich.
What really worries me is the RBS call for market meltdown. The timing was perfect. And you know that oftentimes PERCEPTION IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN REALITY.
MGM buy the JULY 35 call =
VNO vertical 50 day, it's going up tomorrow + GOOG had the same vertical 50 day, FRI, and it's up $5 today
Disclosure: i'm short at 76
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mf...
AA---bounced off it’s 200 day, which helps to support my ATI-at the bottom---ATI---bottom fishing dream list---KALU and RTI—are the companions of ATI, sort of
He says we're gonna be ok. Buy American stocks. I says to him he better not be wrong when everybody is calling for a crash, or i'm gonna fire his arse quicker than the Roadrunner.
I says i'd rather prefer a crash....He says whatever.
lol
Lot's of people lost their asses last week betting against crude.
What do you mean the only validation he used was a picture of a parking lot?
I shorted the stock versus buying puts options.
It's all documented.
we slice through 11750 towards 11000 very quickly, we bounce for a few weeks/months and then we slice thru 11000 to 10,000 in sept/oct.
That is a possibility. If we breakdown soon, the drop will be vertical. Vertical drops always result in a capitulation and big bounce.
I think at worst in the short term, that will probably be how it would play out.
Note: i personally do not use the trade triangles to trade, but i'd eventually look at it for double checking my analysis.
I did not for sure, I hate pumping, ads.... no one can get me to sign, unless I am convinced...!!
Due to the high volume of requests, MarketClub will be EXTENDING the trial offer until June 24th 11:59pm eastern standard time.
I've been authorized to extend the offer to everybody.
http://www.ino.com/info/74/CD894/&dp=0&l=0
This trial only happens ONCE A YEAR, they claim.
people who are happy with their profits will take it, but i think swingtraders can make some more on the SOHU short.
This kind of stuff is somewhat subjective. In the long run, i think letting your stock work instead of taking quick profits all the time is the better way to trade.
Can you believe couple kids are running Disqus? lol
we are again in bear market..see the sideways trading..
even though i shorted at 76 for a swingtrade, i'm still setting a stoploss at above today's hod. Swingtrade or not, i still follow the rules of exit.
swing trade
Don't buy.
- Citigroup notes Friday's sell-off was sparked by a Reuters article confirming what almost everyone already knew: Sohu will face challenging YoY comps on its brand adv side due to a post-Olympics "hangover" effect. However, the firm believes online gaming will continue to power rev and earnings growth in 2009. They were modeling +18% YoY for 2009 adv revs, so the company's expectations of "+20-30% YoY" is actually stronger than their estimates. Finally, they note that online gaming is highly immune from growing inflationary pressures in China, another positive. Accordingly, the firm raises their 2009E estimate, increases tgt to $90 (from $80), and reiterates Buy rating.
2Q tracking ahead of plan; 3Q looks excellent - Citi believes both Adv & Gaming are having a strong quarter, and should come in above company guidance. 3Q is also set to be very strong, especially with Olympics adv, which should benefit from Sohu recently being granted the rights to show live streaming video of all events. Sohu is easily one of the, if not the, fundamentally best positioned names for at least the next 2 quarters.
- Merrill Lynch reits Buy & $95 tgt on SOHU after a massive sell-off on Friday triggered by a report by Reuters on growth of Sohu’s online ad, 40% of revenues in 1Q08, to slow down to 20-30% YoY in 09. Even given a significant US market correction on Friday, they see overreaction to the article. Firm also sees Sina as another victim.
MLCO believes the company has been communicating the same message (slowdown in ad growth in 09) for a few months. They also believe the range is inline, if notbetter, than most analysts’ estimates. For example, they are looking at 22% growth in online ad only and Bloomberg consensus shows a 23% growth in sales (including games and wireless services).
Firm believes the focus should be on Sohu’s potential margin expansion in 2009, despite lower topline growth. They expect Sohu to obtain a high-tech status and thus a 15% tax rate for 2009. They are also modeling material operating leverage as they expect the reduction in Olympic-related spending next year, est. to be US$15-20m, to be able to offset most of the increase in operating expenses to support organic growth. They therefore expect net margins to improve to 35% in 09.
Notablecalls: I was quite surprised to see SOHU down over 10 pts on Friday following the Reuters story. With two tier-1 firms out defending and one of them actually raising their ests for Q2, the stock is a very strong bounce candidate. There are clearly a lot of shorts in the name from Friday and I smell blood.
Buy it early & aggressively. I see it trading up several points today.
That's my take anyways.
I am putting out a challenge to see if you can beat my record.
Not saying that I am good but rather I was lucky. I rather be lucky than good.
If you do beat it, then show me a screen shot and not the BS.
Here is where you can test your trading skills.
http://www.inspectd.com/
Here is my result.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_JyuPoopKYJk/SF6nzMpXfhI...
Because it is not real money?
SOHU may bounce......
Arun what are you looking at?
We should all keep spreadsheets and watch to see how successful the trade recommendations are.... see how the track record pans out...
It's too soon to just take profits and call it quits.
Oh yeah, ya got your sale at 27...and then at 50......
Stocks which are going up keeps going up ..(ENER, IPI, FSYS, GMXR, POT etc..) and the stocks going down keeps going down (NYX, UA, DKS, STP etc..) what's the deal here? Is it just the sectors..? Shouldn't market corrections take everything with it? Very hard to play the overbought/oversold conditions these dyas. I hope other traders here feel the same way..
http://venturebeat.com/2008/06/23/the-race-is-o...
If you are short USO, then don't panic until it closes above $113.
it's a fake upgrade so they could short. imo
Your blog has too many security holes. I can break it one by one. lol